Big Ten Primer: Is Penn State the pick?

Two of the top three teams in the preseason Top 25 are in the Big Ten, but sorting out where Penn State, Ohio State and a host of other potential contenders finish in the 18-team league is a challenging assignment.
The No. 2 Nittany Lions are following the blueprint that led Michigan and Ohio State to the past two national titles: retaining fourth-and fifth-year players at key positions who returned with the sole mission of winning a championship.
“All the hard work that they have done, the number of guys that decided to come back, they have earned those types of conversations and that attention,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “But I would also say to you, which I think you heard me say before, again, no one cares about preseason rankings.”
Penn State does not have Michigan on the schedule. The Nittany Lions host Oregon on Sept. 27 in a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten title game, won by the Ducks, 45-37.
Penn State (11-1 predicted regular-season record)
2024 record: 13-3
Last conference title: 2016
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 1, at Ohio State
The Buckeyes have owned this series with eight straight wins, two by one point, and ending the misery won’t be easy in Columbus. Interestingly, both teams are off the preceding weekend.
The Nittany Lions win the Big Ten if … senior quarterback Drew Allar plays like a veteran leader with no fear and wins the close games that make for a championship season.
Oregon (11-1 predicted record)
2024 record: 13-1
Last conference title: 2024
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 27, at Penn State
A rematch of last year’s Big Ten championship game sends the Ducks to Happy Valley for the first time since 1964. Landing early on the schedule, this is an important tone-setter for the reigning champions against the Big Ten’s preseason favorites.
The Ducks win the Big Ten if … former blue-chip recruit and UCLA transfer Dante Moore is up to the task of replacing outstanding quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The more pressing question for Oregon’s repeat bid is addressing its physicality up front, which Ohio State exploited in a Rose Bowl rout. Ducks coach Dan Lanning said at Big Ten media days that losses provide opportunity for “learning lessons, but it doesn’t necessarily impact the future.” In the case of last year’s playoff flameout, the cause should be Oregon’s primary focus in 2025.
Ohio State: (10-2 predicted record)
2024 record: 14-2
Last conference title: 2020
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Aug. 30, Texas
It doesn’t get any tougher for the third-ranked defending national champion Buckeyes than playing the No. 1 Longhorns with redshirt freshman QB Julian Sayin making his first start. Oh, and Texas is still smarting from the 28-14 loss to the Buckeyes in the CFP semifinal eight months ago.
The Buckeyes will repeat as national champs if … star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and standout safety Caleb Downs live up to the hype and the Buckeyes can overcome hiccups by their young quarterback.
“We’re not defending anything. They can’t take the trophy away,” coach Ryan Day said. “We’re looking to attack and win a championship with this team.”
Nebraska (10-2 predicted record)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2001 (Big 12)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 1 vs. USC
A couple of juggernauts from bygone eras head into 2025 hoping to regain their past glory. Both Nebraska and USC could begin November in the hunt for the Big Ten crown, but the loser in this game likely will leave Lincoln waiting again ‘til next year.
The Cornhuskers win the Big Ten if … they capitalize on a manageable schedule lacking 2024 CFP participants Ohio State and Oregon. Should Dylan Raiola build on the promise he showed as a freshman, throwing for more than 2,800 yards, the Cornhuskers should head into the regular season’s final month in contention.
Michigan (9-3 predicted record)
2024 record: 8-5
Last conference title: 2023
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 29, Ohio State
The Wolverines hope they will be a factor in the conference race but, if not ,a chance to beat the Buckeyes for a fifth straight time is enough motivation.
The Wolverines make the playoffs if … they can carry the momentum from season-ending victories over Ohio State and Alabama. A lot depends on whether freshman five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood is ready to handle the pressure. As always, the Wolverines will have a stout defense.
Illinois (8-4 predicted record)
2024 record: 10-3
Last conference title: 2001
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: at Indiana, Sept. 20
Two of the league’s ranked teams line up for a tussle in Bloomington that is likely to separate the fringe contenders in opposite directions. Indiana lost multiple key pieces from the surprising playoff season a year ago, while Illinois brings back almost every player of significance.
The Illini win the Big Ten if … everything breaks right in September, and Illinois opens the season with six consecutive wins by also scoring a victory to begin October at Purdue. That’s because the next one on the schedule, in Champaign, brings Ohio State to Memorial Stadium. That’s likely the final ranked team on a light schedule, leaving Illinois with a reasonable chance to repeat a 10-win season.
Indiana (8-4 predicted record)
2024 record: 11-2
Last conference title: 1967 (co-champion)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: at Oregon, Oct. 11
It’s not just winning on the road. It’s winning at Autzen Stadium in a first-time trek into the heart of Duck Country to test a defense that should still be able to carry its water. The two road games Indiana played last season against ranked opponents — at Ohio State (38-15) and in the CFP at Notre Dame (21-17) — were not works of art.
The Hoosiers win the Big Ten if … coach Curt Cignetti’s team lives up to his strong track record, displays a meaty run defense and has enough holdovers on offense to make another stand. Indiana only lost twice last season, and the two defeats were against the national championship game winner and runner-up. We’re not accustomed to seeing the Hoosiers listed as Big Ten football contenders, and getting back to the CFP is likely too much to ask. Being in position for win No. 10 in a bowl game is feasible.
Minnesota (8-4 predicted record)
2024 record: 8-5
Last conference title: 1967
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 17, vs. Nebraska
Minnesota brings a five-game winning streak against Nebraska into 2025, with the last four decided by one score. Both the Golden Gophers and Cornhuskers have the pieces to sneak into the CFP conversation, making their midseason clash potentially pivotal for each team’s season.
The Golden Gophers win the Big Ten if … they follow the words of their head coach.
“Indiana showed last year, anybody can get [to the playoff],” coach P.J. Fleck said at Big Ten media days. “If we’re delusional enough to know we can do that, we can get there.”
Delusion may not be Minnesota’s greatest strength in 2025, but if it can turn last year’s heartbreaks into this year’s wins — the Golden Gophers dropped games to North Carolina, Rutgers and Penn State by a combined 13 points — it just might stun the Big Ten.
USC (8-4 predicted record)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2017 (Pac-12)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 1, at Nebraska
With the exception of a visit to 2024 season national runner-up Notre Dame two weeks prior, the Nov. 1 trip to Nebraska is USC’s most noteworthy test before a tough late-season stretch. Both the Trojans and Cornhuskers should be in the hunt when this date rolls around — if all goes according to plan.
The Trojans win the Big Ten if … they win the close ones. Having lost five games by one-score margins a season ago, USC proved it’s close to being able to compete every week in the Big Ten. More stability at quarterback with Jayden Maiava back and talent on both sides will again have the Trojans competing in every game. If they learned how to finish from last year’s missteps, they’ll be at the front of the pack.
Washington (7-5 predicted record)
2024 record: 5-7
Last conference title: 2023 (Pac-12)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 27, vs. Ohio State
Washington underwhelmed in its first season both as a Big Ten member and with coach Jedd Fisch at the helm, but the Huskies have a prime opportunity to declare themselves back to a title-contending level in the first month. Drawing the reigning national champions in Seattle is a huge boon for Washington that, if capitalized upon, sets the Huskies up nicely for a manageable latter-portion of the slate.
The Huskies win the Big Ten if … they make Husky Stadium the most feared venue for road teams in the Big Ten. Washington draws each of Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon to Montlake. Should the Huskies go 3-0 in those matchups, they’ll be well-positioned for a conference-title push.
Iowa (7-5 predicted record)
2024 record: 8-5
Last conference title: 2004
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 11, at Wisconsin
Iowa has won three straight in the series, all by more than a touchdown, but this year’s visit to Camp Randall Stadium has trap-game potential. Facing the Badgers precedes a three-week home stretch against Penn State, Minnesota and Oregon.
The Hawkeyes win the Big Ten if … the offense comes to life. Outstanding defense keeps Iowa consistently producing winning seasons, but the Hawkeyes rarely have the offense to break through to championship contention. South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, a two-time FCS national championship and winner of the 2023 Walter Payton Award, passed for 93 touchdowns in four seasons. Similar production for Iowa could see the Hawkeyes emerge as dark-horse Big Ten contenders.
Michigan State: (6-6)
2024 record: 5-7
Last conference title: 2015
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 25, Michigan
The Wolverines lead the series 74-38-5 with three straight wins, although the Spartans have won five of the past eight meetings in East Lansing.
The Spartans can win the Big Ten if … a transformational change occurs under second-year coach Jonathan Smith, one not unlike Indiana’s surprising resurgence last season. He was able to retain 70 players in a program that has one winning season out of the past seven.
Rutgers: (6-6)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2012 (Big East co-champion)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 8: Maryland
The Scarlet Knights’ hopes of six wins to qualify for a bowl game could be decided against the Terrapins with the final two games at Ohio State and home against Penn State.
The Scarlet Knights win the Big Ten if … well, let’s lower the bar to being competitive. That happens if coach Greg Schiano can get his players to believe they are better than their talent suggests, especially on defense. They allowed more than 30 points in seven of their final eight games last season.
Wisconsin (6-6 predicted record)
2024 record: 5-7
Last conference title: 2012
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 4, at Michigan
Wisconsin bookends a make-or-break October with a pair of high-profile road trips, closing the month at Oregon and home dates against Iowa and Ohio State. How the Badgers go into that critical three-game stretch could well be shaped by how they perform at the beginning of the month when they visit Michigan at the Big House.
The Badgers win the Big Ten if … coach Luke Fickell gets Wisconsin to rise to the occasion in a potentially do-or-die season for him. Adding a road trip to Alabama to a league slate that sends Wisconsin to both Michigan and Oregon will test the Badgers’ mettle collectively and that of quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. individually.
Maryland (5-7)
2024 record: 4-8
Last conference title: 2001 (ACC)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 29, at Michigan State (Ford Field, Detroit)
This may feel like a bowl game at the off-campus site and it might come down to defeating the Spartans to be bowl eligible.
The Terrapins can win the Big Ten if … well, a clear path to a Big Ten title might not materialize. The Terps can feel good about the 2025 season if there’s a return to form of the three seasons prior to 2024 when they were 23-16 with three bowl wins. The Terps get a break by not having to play Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State or USC.
Northwestern: (4-8 predicted record)
2024 record: 4-8
Last conference title: 2000 (co-champion)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 29: at Illinois
The Land of Lincoln game is a fitting end of the regular season for the in-state rivals. The Illini won 38-28 at Wrigley Field last season.
The Wildcats can be optimistic if … there was a way to jump to 2026 when their new stadium opens and the recruiting benefits it brings will kick in.
“It truly will be the best football venue in the country,” coach David Braun said. “It won’t affect us in 2025. It’s certainly affecting our recruiting in a positive manner. But so much to look forward to in 2026.”
UCLA (4-8 predicted record)
2024 record: 5-7
Last conference title: 1998 (Pac-12)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Aug. 30, vs. Utah
Too much stock should rarely be placed on a Week 1 game. However, for UCLA, slow starts to seasons have doomed the Bruins repeatedly in recent years — including its first under coach DeShaun Foster. Avoiding a repeat of last year’s 1-5 start is vital, and it starts at home in Week 1 against a well-coached Utah bunch looking to rebound from its own disappointment in 2024.
The Bruins win the Big Ten if … it gets strong play on both sides of the ball. In its wins last season, UCLA held opponents to 20 points or fewer four times. Recreating that on a consistent basis, with highly publicized quarterback Nico Iamaleava revitalizing the offense, is key to UCLA emerging as a surprise contender.
Purdue (2-10 predicted record)
2024 record: 1-11
Last conference title: 2000 (co-champion)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 28: Indiana
The Old Oaken Bucket will be up for grabs in this Black Friday primetime matchup. The Boilermakers will try to avenge their most lopsided loss in the 125-game series, 66-0 in 2024.
The Boilermakers will win more than one game if … realistically, winning the Big Ten is a pipe dream at Purdue right now. But just collecting multiple wins is a great place to start. Optimism counts for something. They can’t be much worse, can they? Yet Purdue has CFP qualifiers Indiana, Notre Dame and Ohio State on the schedule.
“Our players, the staff we brought here, the families, fans, nobody wants to hear that it’s a rebuild,” first-year coach Barry Odom said. “I will not talk about that to our team.”